Contentious Elections: From Ballots to Barracades, coedited book with Pippa Norris & Ferran Martínez i Coma. 2015. New York: Routledge.
From Afghanistan to Zimbabwe the world has witnessed a rising tide of contentious elections ending in heated partisan debates, court challenges, street protests, and legitimacy challenges. In some cases, disputes have been settled peacefully through legal appeals and electoral reforms. In the worst cases, however, disputes have triggered bloodshed or government downfalls and military coups. Contentious elections are characterized by major challenges, with different degrees of severity, to the legitimacy of electoral actors, procedures, or outcomes. Despite growing concern, until recently little research has studied this phenomenon. The theory unfolded in this volume suggests that problems of electoral malpractice erode confidence in electoral authorities, spur peaceful protests demonstrating against the outcome, and, in the most severe cases, lead to outbreaks of conflict and violence. Understanding this process is of vital concern for domestic reformers and the international community, as well as attracting a growing new research agenda.
Advancing Electoral Integrity, coedited book with Pippa Norris & Ferran Martínez i Coma. 2014. New York: Oxford University Press.
Many elections confront challenges in meeting international standards of electoral integrity, including in established democracies such as the US, UK and Canada. This edited book, based on new research presented at a Harvard workshop in June 2013, brings together a wide range of leading international experts and emerging voices to understand problems of electoral integrity in countries around the world. Chapters evaluate the standards, methods, and evidence for evaluating when elections fail; analyze the central role of election management bodies in promoting integrity;consider the impact of malpractices on political legitimacy, and identify effective policy interventions designed to advance integrity.
Expert Judgements with Ferran Martínez i Coma. Book chapter in Advancing Electoral Integrity.
This chapter introduces the Expert Survey of Perceptions of Electoral Integrity (PEI) and presents preliminary pilot phase results. We argue that this survey will contribute both to the survey methodology literature as well as to our understanding of why some elections meet international standards of electoral integrity and others do not. The PEI survey is part of a larger effort—the six-year Electoral Integrity Project—at understanding the causes and consequences of electoral integrity.
Civil wars reflect, in part, internal contestation over the provision of resources. A governments ability to ‘buy off’ rebellion by providing social welfare payments is one mechanism to help ensure social stability. In times of economic distress, however, the government becomes increasingly constrained in its ability to provide social welfare and absent some form of financial relief will be subject to increasing pressure from potential rebel groups. Migrant remittances can serve as a smoothing mechanism that provides for social welfare needs outside the formal mechanisms of the state, and therefore act to reduce the incentive for rebellion. We develop a model of migrant remittances as a vehicle that provides domestic stability in times of economic constraints. We test hypotheses from this model on World Bank remittance data to 152 countries from 1980 to 2005. Our results suggest that under certain conditions migrant remittances lower the risk of civil war.
Assessing the Quality of Elections with Pippa Norris & Ferran Martínez i Coma. 2013. Journal of Democracy 24(4): 124-135.
Determining when, where and why elections fail is a growth industry yet to date scholars and practitioners have been hindered by lack of reliable, credible and consistent evidence which could be used to compare the quality of elections around the world. This paper presents the first results of a new pilot study, based on an expert survey of Perceptions of Electoral Integrity applied to 20 countries. This data allows analysts to compare an overall standardized 100-point PEI index, or the results can be examined in more fine-grained detail for eleven dimensions of electoral integrity, or for each of the separate 49 items. The PEI index is tested and found to demonstrate high levels of external validity, internal validity, and legitimacy. The paper concludes that, when triangulated with other evidence, PEI can address many research issues, such as how best to classify electoral autocracies, as well as proving useful for policymakers concerned with evaluating ‘what works’ to strengthen electoral integrity.
Passenger or Driver? A Cross-National Examination of Media Coverage and Civil War Interventions with Sam Bell & Paul Macharia. International Interactions 39(5): 646-671. Replication materials.
Prior research on civil war interventions suggests that the media play a significant role in states’ decisions to intervene. To date, however, most studies focus on specific cases (frequently by the US) leaving it unclear whether the media’s influence extends more broadly. This article argues that media coverage makes intervention move likely because of the way because of domestic political and popular pressure and bureaucratic incentives. We test our hypotheses using cross-national data on civil war interventions and media coverage. These data include a new measure of media coverage of 73 countries experiencing civil wars between 1982 and 1999. These data allow us to determine whether media coverage drives leaders’ decisions or follow them. Towards this end we employ a two-stage conditional maximum likelihood model to control for potential endogeneity between media attention and interventions. The results suggest a reciprocal positive relationship between media attention and civil conflict interventions. Specifically, an increase of one standard deviation increase in media coverage raises the probability of intervention 68%.
Good for the Money? International Finance, State Capacity, and Internal Armed Conflict with Colin Barry & Matthew DiGiuseppe. 2012. Journal of Peace Research 49(3): 391-405. Replication materials.
Previous research indicates that a lack of state capacity is a key determinant of internal armed conflict. Scholars identify several internal dimensions of state capacity, but have yet to explore how international finance influences state resources. This is surprising because sovereign lending has increased dramatically in recent decades and plays an increasing role in the functioning of developed and developing governments. In this article, we explore this relationship between a state’s integration into global credit markets and its subsequent capacity to promote domestic stability. We argue that international capital increases a state’s ability to respond to internal opposition because states with favorable credit terms can expand their resource base beyond domestic constraints to deter, accommodate, or repress opposition while maintaining a level provision of resources to their political base. We examine the influence that both capital access and credit terms have on the risk of civil conflict in 141 countries from 1981-2007. Our empirical results indicate that states with affordable credit access are indeed less likely to experience civil conflict.
External Interventions in Civil Wars: A New Dataset with Patrick M. Regan and Aysegul Aydin. 2009. Journal of Peace Research 46(1): 135-146. Replication materials. Users manual.
Recent research in the civil war literature has focused on how and when external actors intervene. However, to date, systematic data have not existed on diplomatic efforts in conflict management. This article fills this gap and introduces a dataset on 438 diplomatic interventions in 68 conflicts stretching from 1945 to 1999. The authors briefly outline previous research on third-party interventions in civil wars, describe the dataset in some detail, including some initial patterns in the data, and describe how this dataset contributes to research into conflict processes. The authors also demonstrate how diplomatic interventions can be incorporated into other research agendas by merging this dataset with Doyle & Sambanis’s peacekeeping data and replicating their analysis to examine the role of external diplomacy on peacebuilding success. These data on interventions, moreover, can be merged with commonly used datasets on intrastate conflicts, which promises a wide range of application in civil war studies. Developing a greater understanding of when and how civil wars end, scholarship needs to take into account efforts to arrive at diplomatic solutions. And if, as the results demonstrate, externally driven diplomacy facilitates the termination of civil wars, then the policy implications are quite important.
New Datasets on Political Institutions and Elections, 1972-2005 with Patrick M. Regan & David H. Clark. 2009. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(2): 120-137. Data. Users manual.
This article introduces two new datasets produced by the Institutions and Elections Project. Those datasets contain nuanced information describing the political institutions, the constitutional and practical arrangements in governments, and every national election for every country in the international system between 1972 and 2005. We believe the 127 variables in these data represent a significant contribution to research programs in comparative and world politics interested in the nuances of domestic politics.
Human Trafficking Indicators, 2000-2011: A New Dataset. 2013. Available from SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2314157.
Human Trafficking Indicators website. Data.
This manuscript presents the Human Trafficking Indicators (HTI), a new dataset on human trafficking patterns and government anti-trafficking efforts in 179 countries from 2000 to 2011. This is the first dataset to broadly capture different trafficking types and disaggregated measures of government responses. These data enable the cross-national study of seven types of trafficking including forced prostitution, labor, domestic servitude, and debt bondage. The HTI also includes measures of a government’s law enforcement efforts, protective services, and prevention efforts. This paper presents an overview of the dataset, some initial trends, and implications for trafficking research.
Human Trafficking. 2014. Encyclopedia of Social Deviance. Heath Copes and Craig J. Forsyth, eds. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Book review of Securing the Peace: The Durable Settlement of Civil Wars by Monica Duffy Toft. 2010. Political Science Quarterly 125(3):148-9.
Works in Progress
National Law Enforcement in a Globalized World: The Case of Human Trafficking with Beth Simmons. Under review.
Human trafficking has become a critical global issue since the 1990s. At the intersection of human rights, human security, and transnational criminal control, human trafficking is increasingly at the forefront of United States foreign policy. One of the central policy responses to the problem of human trafficking – central both to international law, regional European law, and domestic US law – has been to criminalize it and work to prosecute traffickers. Yet little to nothing is known about the consequences of a prosecutorial approach. We suggest there are at least three theoretical possibilities: (1) criminalization may have no effect on trafficking; (2) criminalization may reduce human trafficking, and/or (3) criminalization may divert human trafficking from one jurisdiction to another, as traffickers seek the path of least resistance toward profiting from the exploitation of potential workers. To test these ideas, we have developed a unique time series dataset that documents trafficking “corridors:” dyads of states between which human trafficking has credibly been observed and reported in the annual United States Trafficking in Persons Reports. We find evidence of a reduction of trafficking within corridors where enforcement has been strengthened, but also diversion of trafficking towards contiguous neighbors of the enforcers. This is important because it suggests the enforcement of criminal law can have transnational negative externalities unless it is approached in a coordinated fashion.
The Relationship between Civil Conflict and Domestic Terrorism with Michael Allen and Matthew DiGiuseppe. In progress.
In recent research there is growing appreciation that different types of political violence spring from the same sources of dissatisfaction with the state. However, there have been few quantitative tests incorporating more than one form of violence. This paper helps to remedy this academic oversight by exploring the sources of dissatisfaction and the means with which citizens challenge state authority—by mobilizing for civil war or engaging in acts of domestic terrorism. Previous work on civil wars indicates that a state’s structural characteristics can make rebellion unfeasible if the state is strong enough to repress or co-opt dissent. Previous work on terrorism suggests that it is more likely in such stronger states. Scholars’ failure to incorporate a range of violent acts underestimates the true effect of environmental, state, and group conditions by systematically ignoring a potential range of opposition responses. We construct a more inclusive model of political violence to describe where different forms of political violence are more likely to be used. Empirically, we estimate a bivariate probit model of terrorism and civil war to allow for simultaneity between terrorism and civil war in 170 countries from 1972 to 2009. Our findings indicate that economic development and polity type offer separating conditions for terrorism and civil war while issues related to grievances encourage the pooling of violent acts.